Azerbaijan v Armenia (20th-21st century)
If you are travelling to the Caucaus, you can’t avoid the topic of Armenia when looking up Azerbaijan. I am by no means an expert in Caucasian geo-politics — it’s a VERY contested territory where people from both regions have both been victims and perpetrators throughout history. From spending over 1 month in both countries, conversing with locals of different demographics (ages, genders, various occupations and educational levels) and doing more in depth research pre, during and after the trip, here’s my take on what happened*:
1918: The Caucaus Independence
When Georgia (the third Caucaus country, not the US’ Southern state) proclaimed its independence, it marked the disintegration of the Transcaucasian Federation. On the same day May 26, 1918, both Azerbaijan (AZ) and Armenia (AE) proclaimed independence. Imagine the awkwardness when both AZ and AE claimed the same territory — this territory is called Nagano-Karabakh in Azerbaijani, or Arstakh in Armenian. Both ethnicities, Azerbaijanis and Armenians have historically lived in the area.
“Politicians talk abut air and land and stone like it has ethnicity; Armenian stones; Azerbaijan land. This is not an experience of people who live there” — From the documentary Assignment: Armenia’s Lost Garden (Published April 23, 2024)
1922–1991: Soviet Time
This disagreement became futile when both Armenia and Azerbaijan became annexed as part of Soviet Union in 1922. For the next 69 years, both nations were part of Soviet Union until its fall in 1991. During these annexation, both Azerbaijanis and Amenians were moved in and out of the region.
1988: First Nagorno-Karabakh War
In midst of the fall of Soviet Union, the Armenians in Karabakh decided to join Armenia. The dying Soviet government in Moscow initially backed Karabakh’s return to Azerbaijan, in return for Azerbaijan’s support for Mikhail Gorbachev’s attempts to keep the Soviet Union together. Following this in 1992, Khojaly massacre happened — during this time, ethnic Azerbaijani citizens of Khojaly was fired upon by Armenian military post as they escaped the city.
The aftermath saw 700,000+ Azerbaijanis leaving Nagano-Karabakh. After this war, Azerbaijan forbade citizens of Armenia, people of Armenian descent and those who have visited the disputed region to enter its borders without authorization. To this day, there is no means of transport between the regions: no train; no direct flight, despite sharing 1000km of land border.
2008–2020: Mardakert Skirmishes
A ceasefire was agreed upon post the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, but a series of violations of the ceasefire continued. Basically, both sides said truce but noone really meant it.
2008 marked the start of border clash, which kept escalating. The casualties, along with the severity of the conflict kept escalating — what started as the deaths of 4 Armenian soldiers and 1 Azeri soldier in June 10, 2008, later grew to 350 troops and civilians in 2016, and finally 3,825 Armenian and Artsakh troops and 2,906 of Azerbaijan troops in 2020.
“What the Azerbaijanis are doing to us; our grandfathers did to them when Shusha was ‘liberated’ in 1992. 20 years later, everything is reversed.”— From the documentary Assignment: Armenia’s Lost Garden (Published April 23, 2024)
2020: Second Nagorno-Karabakh War
Border incursion persisted and more deaths led to ceasefire. However, Azerbaijan government launched military offensive in September 2022, and at the same time began blockading Nagorno-Karabakh’s supply of food, gas and electricity.
Artsakh was dissolved on January 1, 2024. 100,000 Armenians left the regions — the ones who stayed had to agree with the condition of accepting Azerbaijan citizenship. Estimates suggest that between 50 and 1,000 Armenians stayed behind, with some reports indicating that as few as a couple of dozen individuals remained.
“When Armenian are beaten by Azerbaijan, we call it genocide. When Azerbaijans are beaten in Armenia, we call it justice or nothing at all” — from an Armenian in the documentary Assignment: Armenia’s Lost Garden (Published April 23, 2024)
Global Impact
“the flapping of a butterfly’s wings can be felt on the other side of the world.” — Chinese proverb (this proverb inspired meteorologist Edward Lorenz, who coined the term “butterfly effect” in the 1960s)
Ever since France entered the picture supporting Armenia, Azerbaijan representatives at the UN started hosting anti-colonial conference inviting French territories, which to me is equivalent to “you mess with my international affairs, and I’ll mess with yours”, especially since no British territories were invited — only the French.
Then on May 2024, New Caledonia had its most violent protest since the 1980s. It’s now remembered as the May 16th riot. How is this relevant, you ask? Let’s go back to Paris one day before the riot — on May 15th, 2024, France’s National Assembly endorsed a proposed new constitutional law that would allow French residents who have lived in New Caledonia for a decade the right to vote in provincial elections.
If you haven’t heard, similar immigration tactics have been employed by countries like Ireland, Kuwait, the US, Bahrain, Russia (post-Crimea), Malaysia and Israel, where selective immigration policies were used to incentivize certain demographics to vote in favor of those in power. In the context of New Caledonia, France’s recent decision would overturn a key provision of the 1998 Nouméa Accord, an agreement that has maintained civil peace for over 25 years. Understandably, local New Caledonians suspect — rightfully so — that allowing French immigrants to vote could undermine the nation’s prospects for gaining independence.
Now, France is accusing Azerbaijan of fueling anti-French sentiment in New Caledonia. My question is: if Azerbaijan has not provided any weapons or direct material support, yet their diplomatic meetings and engagements are giving New Caledonians the confidence to stand up to France, is Azerbaijan to be blamed?
While immigration policies are often framed around humanitarian or economic needs, history shows that they can also serve as tools for political power consolidation.
Note:
*By no means does this aim to simplify or diminish the impact of regional conflicts or the experiences of those affected. This is merely a brief attempt to understand how history has shaped the narratives of the Caucasus today.
